Friday, September 28, 2012

A Word to the Daily Poll Watchers

By Jamie J. 
Eye of Polyphemus

"I am not much of a poll watcher until after the debates when the candidates have had their last big shot at appealing to voters. The winner and loser does not usually become solidified until then. There is no point in paying much attention to polling prior to the debates accept to analyze the successes and failures of the respective campaigns. Even that is more of a concern for the campaigns themselves, but the polls around this time can show candidates’ supporters which way they need to prod their guy towards victory.
 For whatever influence said supporters actually have. I am in deep red South Carolina where Mitt Romney cannot lose and Barack Obama cannot win. Neither one o them cares what anyone in the palmetto state thinks. Perhaps you are in the same bright red or blue situation. The circumstances do give you a certain distance from the election as a whole. The primaries are the last close up glimpse of the presidential race we get remember Newt Gingrich running away with South Carolina/ That was a long time ago. With that in mind, appreciate high emotions regarding the campaign have given way to detached observation of reality in everything else I am going to write here.
Embrace the fact that polls are largely accurate. Romney and Obama are virtually tied in the national polls. National polls are a soft indicator, however. It is the swing state polls that really matter in a relatively even matched election like this one, and those show Obama with an advantage. Stop claiming that the methodology is biased or looking at ’alternate polls that show who really is in the lead.....look at the facts instead."
Read the Rest  
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